Pandemic weighs on budget

HANOI (Vietnam News/ANN) -- The COVID-19 pandemic will continue to weigh on socio-economic development and State budget in 2021 and the years that follow, Minister of Finance dinh Tien Dung said.
Dung said that what happened in 2012-13 period showed that in an economic downturn, the domestic budget collection growth rate was equivalent to just half of the GDP’s growth rate. Domestic budget collection was projected to increase by 5.6 percent over 2020 – a positive growth in the context of uncertainty.

VNĐ2.75 quadrillion would be for development investment to aid the post-pandemic economic recovery in the next five-year period.   --Photo VNS

If GDP this year expanded at around 2-3 percent, GDP would average 5.8-5.9 percent in 2016-20 period, still lower than the target of 6.5-7 percent.
Budget revenue this year was anticipated to be VNĐ190 trillion (US$8.2 billion) lower than the plan and for the five-year period, the revenue would be around VNĐ150 trillion lower. 
Budget deficit would be at around 3.8 percent of GDP this year and public debt reduced to 56.8 percent from 63.7 percent in 2016.
The global and regional economic recovery would be significantly dependent of the capacity of containing the virus, Dung said.
In 2021, budget revenue was projected at VNĐ1.34 quadrillion, VNĐ170 bil-lion lower than the plan for 2020. Budget deficit was planned at four per cent of GDP in 2021.
For the 2021-25 period, the economic growth was proposed at 6.5-7 percent and the budget revenue to total VNĐ7.8 quadrillion, 1.1 – 1.2 times higher than 2016-20 period. Dung said domestic collection was expected to account for 85-86 percent of the budget revenue, 12.7 percent from import and export and 1.4 percent from crude oil.
The percentage of budget revenue from crude oil reduced from 12.7 percent in 2011-15 period to 3.6 percent in 2016-20. Domestic collection was expected to expand at an average of 8 percent per year in 2021-25 period in the context of global economic uncertainty and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Spending for the next five-year period would total VNĐ9.7 quadrillion, 1.3 times higher than 2016-20 period. Of the figure, VNĐ2.75 quadrillion would be for development investment to aid the post-pandemic economic recovery,
Budget deficit was projected to average 3.7 percent of GDP in 2021-25 period and reduce from four percent in 2021 to 3.4 percent in 2025. Public debt would be planned at 47.5 percent of GDP.

(Latest Update November 10, 2020)